The credit crisis that began to unfold in the United States and Europe in 2006 contains a treasure trove of lessons for risk managers that we have tried to incorporate into this book. Since we have each worked in Japan, we felt strongly that the collapse of the Japanese bubble, which peaked in late 1989, contained equally useful lessons for risk managers. As you’ll note in the “key fallacies in risk management” discussed below, many ignored the lessons of the Japanese bubble because of the common fallacy that “if it hasn’t happened to me yet, it won’t happen to me, even if it’s happened to someone else.”

2006年开始在美国和欧洲爆发的信贷危机，为风险管理者提供了一系列宝贵的经验教训，我们试图将这些教训纳入本书。由于我们各自在日本工作，我们强烈感到，1989年底达到顶峰的日本泡沫崩溃，对风险管理者也同样有用。正如您在下面讨论的“风险管理关键谬论”中所指出的，许多人忽视了日本泡沫的教训，因为普遍的谬误是“如果我还没有发生，我也不会发生，即使发生在别人身上。”