The year 2015 was an eventful year. After the Federal Reserve officially started the interest rate increase, the dollar index continued to rise, dollar assets were sought after by many, international capital flow experienced large-scale adjustment, and China faced an increasingly sharp pressure of capital outflow. Refugee crisis slowed down the economic recovery in Europe, the risk of “British Exit” further increased the uncertainty of its prospects, and the European Central Bank announced to implement the negative interest rate policy. Since the EU is China’s largest trading partner, a substantial depreciation of the euro hit heavily the export trade of China. Such international circumstances worsened the Chinese economy which was itself in a difficult transformation. For one thing, issues including over-capacity, decline in private investment, and non-performing bank assets have become increasingly prominent. For another, the domestic financial market was in turmoil: the first half of the year witnessed the stock market disaster propelled by high leverage and private funding, ending up with an market value evaporation of over 20 trillion yuan; and the second half experienced a panic exchange rate overshoot in the foreign exchange market, and a cliff-like liquidity crunch of the offshore renminbi market. Domestic and international confidence in China’s economic growth and financial stability has been shaken.

2015年是多事之秋。美联储正式启动加息后，美元指数持续走高，美元资产受到多方追捧，国际资本流动经历了大规模调整，我国面临的资本外流压力越来越大。难民危机减缓了欧洲经济复苏的步伐，“英国退出”的风险进一步增加了其前景的不确定性，欧洲央行宣布实施负利率政策。由于欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴，欧元大幅贬值严重打击了中国的出口贸易。这样的国际环境使中国经济雪上加霜，而中国经济正处于艰难的转型期。一方面，产能过剩、私人投资下降、银行不良资产等问题日益突出。上半年，国内外汇市场又出现了一次高达20万亿元的金融危机，外汇市场又出现了一次暴跌，以及离岸人民币市场的悬崖式流动性紧缩。国内外对中国经济增长和金融稳定的信心受到动摇。