As we start the new year, we believe that the fundamental set up that drove outsized rev/EPS growth and stock performance for semiconductor/semi equipment companies in 2021 remains largely intact with global GDP set to grow 4%+ in 2022, and providing solid macro underpinnings for continued end demand strength: acceleration in cloud/data center capex (top 4 US CSPs up 30% Y/Y), resumption of 5G infrastructure expansion globally, continued 5G smartphone adoption (units up 40%+ Y/Y), recovery in auto production (up 9.5% in 2022), the reemergence of commercial/enterprise PCs (+3% Y/Y in 2022 following +10% in 2021), and resurgence of custom chip (ASIC) programs (12-15% CAGR). Layered on top of the solid demand environment is a persistent supply constraint dynamic that remains extended (into 2023) and has pushed unfulfilled demand into this year and should drive continued pricing power/margin expansion for our companies. Looking into the upcoming 4Q earnings season, we expect Dec-Q revenues/EPS for most of our covered companies to come in above consensus expectations as a seasonally stronger period was bolstered by the aforementioned demand growth drivers and pricing power.
As for March-Q outlooks, we expect better than consensus revenue/EPS as broadbased demand strength (with solid cloud/datacenter/enterprise spending, PC production/demand improvements, 5G infrastructure spending, and auto production recovery continuing to gain momentum) and moderately improving supply dynamics offset a seasonally softer period.
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