RAND Project Air Force was tasked with developing a new capability for planners: an earlywarning system that alerts policymakerswhen a subgroup of Air Force military members is atrisk for future shortages. The goal of the research project was to develop an initial predictionprototype tool that can be used to alert decisionmakers of emerging problems and thus allowthem enough time to consider adjusting accession and retention policies before shortages occur.In this report we first define the features and indicators that inform retention outcomes. We thendescribe a series of models we developed to help predict retention outcomes. Finally, we discussa prototype tool that can be used to operationalize the information produced by the system.

This report should be of interest to decisionmakers responsible for policies aimed at retainingcertain populations of Air Force members, as well as those responsible for policies affected byretention, such as recruiting, training, and promotions. More broadly, the research will be ofinterest to those who study military manpower and personnel issues.