2Q Dental Practice Volume, Revenue Significantly Improves, Albeit on Easy 2020 Comp; Healthy Recovery Outlook with Rising Practitioner Sentiment: According to our proprietary survey of 75 US dental practitioners, 76% of practices experienced >5% growth in revenue in 2Q, vastly better than the 1Q experience (25%), suggesting demand is recovering, likely driven by broader vaccine distribution and greater patient willingness to see practitioners. In 2Q, practice revenue is estimated to have risen 39.2% y/y, a significant sequential improvement relative to 1Q (-9.6%), albeit on an admittedly easy comp (-56.5% in 2Q20), where the prior year period was by far the weakest dental demand period in 2020. Existing patient traffic represented the most meaningful tailwind, followed by routine visits and orthodontics. Respondents remain seemingly optimistic going forward, with expectations of a healthy recovery, including a 14.6% rise in 3Q revenue. Moreover, practitioners expect a 15.8% rise in revenue over the NTM, also likely reflecting the expectation of vaccine adoption, easy comps, as well as some potential medium-term increase in acute cases following visit deferrals. All in, the pandemic drove a meaningful deterioration in demand in 2020, but we are encouraged by the latest positive signals in the survey, which seemingly point a healthy recovery back to pre-COVID baseline levels going forward (likely by YE), as well as improving practitioner sentiment.
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