The Q2 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) points to strong global economic growth in the second half of the year. Confidence remains very high, slipping only marginally from the record high in the previous survey. As the roll out of vaccines gathers pace in many developed countries, so economic conditions are moving towards normal.

Monetary and fiscal policy remains supportive, especially in the US where the extremely large fiscal stimulus is boosting the world economy. The global orders index, which is less volatile than the confidence measure, also increased in the Q2 survey and is consistent with further recovery in the global economy through the second half of 2021.

The two ‘fear’ indices – measured by concerns that customers and suppliers may go out of business – both declined in the Q2 survey. Fear that customers would go out of business is now close to its long-run average while fear that suppliers would do so edged slightly lower. These measures confirm that the extreme uncertainty created by the COVID-19 crisis has now fallen back towards more normal levels (Chart 2).