Following a pullback since May 11th that effectively halved our universe’s prior gain for the year – resulting in a now 15% YTD gain being roughly in-line with the S&P – we provide our top picks for 2H21 as well as discuss demand trends, our outlook for sales growth and margins in 2H21 and valuation. Overall, while we are sympathetic in part to investor concerns regarding demand trends moderating – a key driver of the recent pullback – as we expect more muted growth in DIY in 2H21, at the same time, we expect the recent relative strength in the Pro market (i.e., contractor demand and bigger ticket projects) to continue in 2H21. Across our universe, on average (exAZEK, TREX), we expect solid mid single-digit organic sales growth in 2H21, although this represents a strong deceleration from 1H21’s 20% rate, while similarly, regarding operating margins, following strong YOY expansion in 1H21, we estimate modest contraction on average in 3Q followed by moderate expansion in 4Q. Lastly, trading at roughly 10% discounts to their 5-year averages on a P/E basis and slightly below their 5-year EV/EBITDA average, we view valuation as reasonable if not attractive, as we believe the multiples adequately reflect current investor concerns regarding demand trends in 2H21. However, at the same time, we estimate EPS growth of 15% on average in 2022, driven by mid single-digit sales growth and modest margin expansion, which in turn is based on our outlook for new residential housing to continue to improve, along with repair/remodel demand to grow low to at most mid single-digits, led by Pro with fairly modest DIY improvement. On stock selection, we highlight top picks and Overweight-rated WHR and MHK, as both face comps in 2H21 that are among the easiest across our universe, while we believe WHR is the most “hated” name across both the sellside and buyside and view MHK’s turnaround as remaining solidly on track. We also favor OW-rated FBHS, DOOR and IBP. By contrast, we downgrade MAS to Underweight from Neutral as we trim our estimates and expect relative underperformance due to the company’s more challenged position versus its peers in 2H21 given its higher exposure to DIY as well as it facing tougher comps. As a result, we anticipate a lack of catalysts over the near to medium term to result in limited upside in terms of its multiple. Lastly, we upgrade BLD to Neutral from Underweight, as following solid relative underperformance YTD, we anticipate strong, above average organic sales growth in 2H21, view valuation as reasonable and note that our price target represents upside potential that is roughly in-line with its larger-cap peers. Please join us for a conference call today at 11:00am ET to discuss this report. Contact your J.P. Morgan salesperson for details.
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