• The Kyrgyz Republic is projected to experience temperature rises significantly above the global average.

Warming over the 1986–2005 baseline period could reach 5.3°C by the 2090s, under the highest emissions pathway, RCP8.5.

• Warming is projected to be even stronger in maximum and minimum temperatures and this is likely to amplify pressure on human lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

• Heat stress may represent a serious risk to human life during peak summer temperatures, with a high likelihood that temperatures will more regularly exceed 40°C, particularly in lowland regions such as the Fergana Valley.

• Heat could combine with increased drought incidence to expand arid land cover. Without effective adaptation agricultural yields are likely to suffer. Ecosystems may shift their geographic ranges and at higher altitudes species are likely to see a significant reduction in viable habitat.

• Over the long term, the water sector is projected to experience a regime shift. The loss of mountain glaciers may reduce the regularity of flows and result in the drying of some watersheds.

• Flooding issues and associated hazards such as landslide are expected to intensify, potentially costing lives and livelihoods. Landslide exposure is widespread, and multiple hazardous glacial lakes also demand disaster risk reduction efforts.

• Multidimensional poverty and undernourishment are prevalent in the Kyrgyz Republic. The projected impacts of climate changes are likely to slow progress in addressing these issues as they disproportionately affect the poorest and most marginalized groups.