• Pakistan faces rates of warming considerably above the global average with a potential rise of 1.3°C–4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986–2005 baseline. The range in possible temperature rises highlights the significant differences between 21st century emissions pathways.

• Rises in the annual maximum and minimum temperature are projected to be stronger than the rise in average temperature, likely amplifying the pressure on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

• Changes to Pakistan’s rainfall and runoff regimes, and hence its water resources, are highly uncertain, but an increase in the incidence of drought conditions is likely.

• The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events is projected to increase, increasing disaster risk particularly for vulnerable poor and minority groups • An increase in the number of people affected by flooding is projected, with a likely increase of around 5 million people exposed to extreme river floods by 2035–2044, and a potential increase of around 1 million annually exposed to coastal flooding by 2070–2100.

• Projections suggest yield declines in many key food and cash crops, including cotton, wheat, sugarcane, maize, and rice.

• Temperature increases are likely to place strain on urban dwellers and outdoor laborers, with increased risk of heat-related sickness and death likely under all emissions pathways.

• All of the above should be seen in the context of high and persistent levels of undernourishment and deprivation.

There is an urgent need for further research and delivery of effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction measures.