India is already feeling the impacts of climate change. Heatwaves are becoming more  common and severe, with many cities reporting temperatures above 48°C in 2020. Heavy rain events have increased threefold since 1950, but total precipitation is declining: a billion people in India currently face severe water scarcity for at least one month of the year. Rising sea levels are also creating risks as a third of India’s population live along the coast, where the north Indian  Ocean has risen by an average of 3.2 mm per year over the last two decades.

The economic costs of climate impacts in India are already immense. In 2020, a single event – Cyclone Amphan – affected 13 million people and caused over $13 billion in damage after it made landfall. Declining agricultural productivity, rising sea levels and negative health outcomes were forecast to cost India 3% of gross domestic product at 1°C of global warming.

Low-income and other marginalised groups are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Sustained high temperatures take a disproportionate toll on those who depend on manual outdoor work or live in crowded, poorly ventilated homes. Floods, storm surge and cyclones wreak the most havoc on densely settled, low-income communities not served by risk-reducing infrastructure. One study suggests that declining agricultural productivity and rising cereal prices could increase India’s national poverty rate by 3.5% by 2040 compared to a zero-warming scenario; this equates to around 50 million more poor people that year.