China demand strength and emerging supply restraint, ex-China reboundWe raise our aluminium price forecasts by 9% to $2,145/t in 2021 and 5% to $2,050/t in 2022 reflecting growing confidence in the demand outlook, emerging suppl restraint in China and rising input costs. China demand should remain strong in2021 on account of resilient property trends and rebounding auto and

manufacturing demand; domestic stocks are at their lowest levels since 2017reflecting tight physical conditions. Ex-China demand collapsed in Q2/3 2020, butreturned to positive growth in Q4 and is surprising to the upside so far in 2021,reflected in sharply higher regional premiums. We anticipate a narrowing marketsurplus in 2021 and a shift back towards balance in 2022 as Western demandrecovers to pre-Covid levels. Further production restrictions in China and risingcosts globally present potential upside risks to our price forecasts.