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瑞信-亚太地区科技行业-亚洲半导体反馈:半导体节,“ POs最多可供应一年”-2021.3.11-68页

# 科技行业 # 半导体 # 投行报告 大小:1.57M | 页数:68 | 上架时间:2021-03-18 | 语言:英文

瑞信-亚太地区科技行业-亚洲半导体反馈:半导体节,“ POs最多可供应一年”-2021.3.11-68页.pdf

瑞信-亚太地区科技行业-亚洲半导体反馈:半导体节,“ POs最多可供应一年”-2021.3.11-68页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: XR0209

撰写机构: 瑞信

出版日期: 2021-03-11

摘要:

Summary: We carried out our regular survey of the Asia tech markets in late February and early March. We believe semiconductor and electronic component procurement has become overheated, premised on record-high PC volume in 2021, along with auto production volume of 110–120mn units. Semiconductor-related ordering is disconnected from actual demand, and the book-to-bill ratio (BB) for discrete devices exceeded 2.0 in February, with POs reaching up to one year’s worth of chips. Many industry observers expect inventory adjustments sometime in 2H 2021 or 1Q 2022. Give that the current semiconductor supply shortage arose only after media reports about automakers halting production, and that demand forecasts have been raised regardless of application, an emerging sense of reassurance in the industry after supply catches up with actual automaker demand (i.e., auto production) in May–Jun would probably lead to inventory adjustments. In DRAM and NAND, we think market conditions will lead to price increases in the near term. The current semiconductor capex cycle is widely expected to peak out, as the positive turnaround in memory market prices is not making memory makers less cautious in their final investment decisions, and logic/foundry capex is in a lull in 1H 2021. In back-end SPE, inquiries are no longer overheated like in 4Q 2021, but remain at a high level, and SPE manufacturers are projected to operate at full capacity through Aug–Sep. We think that with regard to the tech sector, the stock market’s full attention will be on whether and when there will be semiconductor inventory adjustments. The excess procurement will end eventually.


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