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美联储-工资在趋势通胀中的作用:回到20世纪80年代?(英)-2023.4

# 通胀 # 工资 # 薪酬 大小:0.63M | 页数:27 | 上架时间:2023-04-19 | 语言:英文

美联储-工资在趋势通胀中的作用:回到20世纪80年代?(英)-2023.4.pdf

美联储-工资在趋势通胀中的作用:回到20世纪80年代?(英)-2023.4.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: wpxc666666

撰写机构: 美联储

出版日期: 2023-04-19

摘要:

This paper examines whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using wage data in a dynamic factor model of disaggregated prices and wages for the United States. The model features time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility. An estimate of trend inflation is a timevarying distributed lag of prices and wages, where the weight on a series depends on its timevarying volatility, persistence, and comovement with other series. The results show that wages inform estimates of trend inflation. The weight on wages was highest around 1980, drifted down through the 2000s, and returned to its 1980s value by 2022. In addition, inflation in the 2020s appears to have unmoored moderately from the 2 percent range that prevailed for decades, as the role of the persistent component of inflation increased in recent year. However, accounting for wages lowers the model's view of the increase in the volatility of trend inflation.

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