This study is a preliminary risk screening of regional climate change risks to electricity generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. All three countries have established green energy visions and are pursuing renewables portfolios of small- to utility-scale solar, wind and hydropower projects through mixed financing from development banks, the Green Climate Fund and private investment.
While the expansion of renewables and transitions to net-zero carbon economies are necessary to avoid catastrophic climate change, such renewables infrastructure investments need to be resilient to a number of rapidly changing threats related to climate change, environmental degradation and cyber-attacks. Low-carbon energy systems also need to be able to meet the opportunities of diversifying economies and new technologies, such as widespread use of electric vehicles. Yet planning for the long time horizons of climate change is novel for many energy policymakers and energy companies around the world.
Energy infrastructure is a significant investment, with the expected lifetime of utility-scale solar ranging from 25 to 40 years, and hydropower plants around 80 years. A climate hazard may not only impact a specific piece of infrastructure but also trigger cascading impacts throughout the energy system, as well as ecosystems.
This study draws from analysis of projections from high-resolution regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), combined with a review of national climate and disaster risk management plans and literature around climate change risks to energy infrastructure to present the preliminary risk screening. CORDEX regional models belong to the suite of international climate models that informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment. However, they have not yet been incorporated into the national assessments of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Drawing on this set of models expands the suite of models for examining more localised climate risks to infrastructure.
Climate change impacts are already being felt across the three countries in this study. Clear and statistically significant increases in maximum and minimum temperatures across all three countries and at most elevations are detectable over the past few decades. CORDEX projections for the 2050s (2036–2065) indicate potential increases in mean annual maximum temperatures of between 1.8°C and 2.2°C for most of the region under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP4.5, with increases of up to 4.0°C for the Pamir-Alay and eastern Pamirs in Tajikistan. Mean annual minimum temperature increases are also more pronounced over the Pamir, Pamir-Alay and parts of the Tian Shan – up to 3.1°C under RCP2.6 and 3.6°C under RCP4.5. By the 2050s, under RCP2.6, most of the Bukhara region and a swath extending from southern Navoi eastwards in Uzbekistan are projected to experience 60+ days with daily maximums exceeding 33°C between July and September; under RCP4.5, more than half of Uzbekistan faces heatwaves.
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