• Afghanistan faces rates of warming higher than the global average with a potential rise of 1.4°C–5.4°C by the 2080s and the 2090s, compared with the baseline of 1986–2005. The range in possible temperature rises highlights the significant differences between 21st century emissions pathways.

• Rises in the annual maximum and minimum temperature are projected to be greater than the rise in average temperature, likely amplifying the pressure on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems.

• Changes to Afghanistan’s rainfall regime, and hence water resources, are highly uncertain, but an increase in the incidence of drought conditions is very likely, and the shifts in the runoff regime have already been documented. Over the long-term, loss of glaciers could fundamentally disrupt regional water and hydropower supplies.

• Arid land-cover is likely to expand either side of the Hindu Kush, leading to shifts in ecosystems and potentially loss of biodiversity.

• Events over the early 21st century show the extreme vulnerability of Afghanistan’s communities to hazards such as drought and flash flooding. This vulnerability is amplified by poverty, undernourishment, food insecurity, and inequality.

• Temperature increases are likely to place strain on urban dwellers, outdoor laborers, and the country’s energy network, with increased risk of heat-related sickness and fatalities under all emissions pathways.

• Comprehensive understanding of current and future climate risks across multiple sectors is severely

constrained by a lack of data and research. This is an obstacle to adaptation and disaster risk reduction for Afghanistan.