Our view of nickel remains moderately positive, but we consider the near-term price is a little overdone, rising on bullish base metals sentiment rather than nickel fundamentals. The nickel market is well-balanced, with rapid Indonesian developments providing new supply for market growth. We continue to expect modest supply surpluses across the forecast period. That said, we have lifted our nickel price forecasts across the forecast period to align with market moves and our positive view of base metals in general. Price forecasts: CY21F US$6.85/lb (up 11%), CY22F US$6.80/lb (up 12%), CY23F US$6.80/lb (up 5%), CY24F US$7.00/lb (up 5%). LT US$6.70/lb. Spot US$7.36/lb. IGO: A double-digit FCF yield with catalysts, but M&A risk. Target price increased to A$4.90/sh (from A$4.35) on increased Ni price deck. Value increases to A$5.11/sh applying spot Ni/Au pricing, while it also offers an attractive double-digit FCF yield of ~15%+ in FY21/22F on our base case price estimates, similar on spot. We view Nova as a high quality asset, of lower risk than many mining operations we assess, and well leveraged to any exploration success able to utilise its sunk infrastructure (note: we do not assume any Nova exploration success in our modelling or valuation, but nor do we subtract IGO’s annual >A$60mn p.a. exploration expense from our group DCF). Outside of commodity prices, IGO has a near-term catalyst in the potential sale of its 30% interest in Tropicana gold mine with a sale process currently under way. While there is no guarantee of a sale completion, it presents an opportunity to crystallise >A$1bn in value noting our Tropicana value on spot gold is A$1.2bn, above our base case value A$0.9bn which assumes US$1,400/oz LT < spot US$1,815/oz. What are we less enamoured with? Strategy. More precisely, the uncertainty around future M&A which seems firmly on the company’s agenda. The pressure to transact will only grow if it executes on Tropicana’s sale, leaving it a single asset operation in Nova which has a finite life to ~2026 on Reserves. NEUTRAL rating is a valuation based call.