While a successful vaccine rollout should break the link between infection and mobility, even then, global oil demand will likely only reach its prepandemic run-rate by mid-2022.

 The purpose of OPEC+’s two-year-long strategic agreement is to align the group's production profile with demand.

 We reiterate our view that the alliance will likely choose to delay the 2 mbd tapering decision on 30 November by a quarter, from January 1 to April 1.

 Our projections see demand normalizing back to the pre-virus levels only by 2022, and we believe that OPEC+ will continue to stick with the terms of the original agreement throughout 2021.

 Crucially, OPEC+ does not have to battle for market share just yet: after six months of minimal capital spending US shale production will likely remain constrained, while non-US, non-OPEC+ production will rise only 0.5 kbd next year.

 This implies that global oil balance will remain in a deficit averaging -1.2 mbd through 2021, and OECD inventory normalizing by late 2021.