Bottom Line: For our Coverage Universe of 22 Companies, we expect UPSIDE to C3Q and C4Q earnings led by: (1) Auto/Ind, (2) Smartphone and (3) Graphics/PCs. Checks suggest Servers and 5G Infra remain in a period of digestion but no worse than modeled; only Enterprise Networking has weakened in C3Q. The Street is modeling C3Q/C4Q q/q Rev +6.9%/-0.3% versus seasonal of +8.1%/+1.7% – we currently see C3Q Rev ABOVE seasonal and C4Q mostly INLINE with seasonal. QTD 8 Semi companies have positively pre’d (ST, QRVO, MPWR, STM, AOSL, DLG, SIMO, NXPI) vrs 8-Q average of ~3 with median C3Q q/q growth of ~1480 bps ABOVE seasonal driven by higher than average exposure to Autos and Handsets. C3Q positive-pre’s have been ~8.8% ABOVE initial guide. We expect SemiCap Equipment to report C3Q at the high-end of guidance range and guide C4Q INLINE with Street despite SMIC headwinds (~300-400 bps to C4Q q/q growth) driven by 1H unfulfilled backlog and strong spending from Samsung and INTC with upside from TSMC. Despite Semis up 31% YTD, we still find investors sentiment/participation more cautious than not; importantly Cyclical Semis are up <10% YTD and clearly have upside into CY21. Roughly 2/3 of our companies (AMD, BRKS, KLAC, LRCX, MCHP, MXIM, NXPI, ON, RMBS, TER, TXN, XLNX) have calendar quarter ends while 1/3 (NVDA, ADI, AMAT, KEYS, MRVL, MU, SNPS) are off-quarter. We would highlight top-picks into C3Q earnings as KLAC, LRCX, TXN, INTC, and TER. Our top off-quarter companies continue to be NVDA, MU, AVGO, and ADI.
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