The figure below summarises every relevant numerical data point in this report. The first five columns are year-to-July vs. year-to-August 2020 volume data for the five main markets (except Japan which shows revenues and year to June/July). The two relevant pieces of information are growth and whether trends are improving (France, Japan, UK, US), staying the same or getting worse (Germany) vs. year-to-July. Then we show what year-to-date volume trends imply for (1) FY20E worldwide growth (5.3%, not far from our 6.0% forecast); (2) UMG 3Q20E recorded organic growth (+13.5%, well above our +5.0% forecast); (3) WMG 3Q20E recorded organic growth (+12.6% above our +2.7% forecast excluding Artist Services), and (4) Spotify 3Q20E constant FX revenue growth (19.9%, above our 16.7% forecast). 

Historically, there has been a very strong correlation between the volume data we collect from the five biggest music markets and UMG, WMG and Spotify quarterly growth rate.  This may not be the case this quarter because of the ongoing effects of Covid-19, hence the unusually large gap.  We track one volume number for streaming that includes both subscription and advertising streams.  Subscription has been largely unaffected by Covid-19 but advertising evidently has been affected.  Consequently, we are loath to read too much into the implied upside to our forecasts in Q3. There is clearly more uncertainty than usual, but we would argue that music has likely remained resilient.