This Chaillot Paper looks at Russia on the horizon

of 2030. It offers analytical insights into the twists

and turns that may characterise the country’s path

in the upcoming decade, and explores how a number

of critical uncertainties may have a significant

impact on Russia’s future trajectory. These

key uncertainties work as ‘catalysts’ that may

speed up the pace and alter the direction of change

in Russia.

The global megatrends which are the focus of the

opening chapter in this volume set the broader

context of Russian futures. The Russian leaders of

tomorrow – whoever they may be – are likely to

attempt to take maximum advantage of the crisis

of Western liberalism and the shifting global order,

and try to shape the digital revolution in Russia

in such a way as to reinforce the authoritarian

political system. On the other hand, the domestic

status quo will be challenged indirectly by societal

and media fragmentation as well as by the ongoing

global energy transition which is set to put in

question the viability of Russia’s extractive economic

model.

The following chapters focus on five distinct dimensions

of Russia’s future domestic and foreign

policy: Russian state-society relations; economic

development; Russia’s military power; Russia’s

relations with the post-Soviet neighbours; and its

relationship with China.