• Energy resources play an important role in Russian strategic designs.

• Policymakers and experts responsible for shaping national and international security policies should monitor developments on the global energy market, to be able to make well-founded predictions on the impact of oil prices and access to export markets on Russia’s strategic behaviour.

• Careful monitoring of regional and global energy markets is required to assess how the changes in the pattern of energy interactions are factored into Russian strategic thinking.

• This can help to indicate the implications for Russia’s ability to improve its military capabilities and to project economic and energy power in relations with the West – which is set to remain Russia’s main energy partner for at least the coming decade.