Hog prices have rebounded 26% since mid-April (earlier than expected). We conclude hog supply (hogs for slaughter) is normalizing and will decline sequentially, after investigating breeding sow herd survey results and recent industry restocking. China’s hog prices have bottomed and are set for a rebound into (at least) year-end (albeit a possible bumpy recovery). We forecast 4Q22-23e hog prices of Rmb18-20/kg vs current Rmb15/kg, with upside risk driven by supply falling short of expectations and cost curve change. We see feed business pressure from demand (April-22 feed output fell 10.8% YoY, vs 2021's +16% and 1Q22's +3%) and cost inflation (JPM global commodity team forecasts key feed raw material corn and wheat prices could continue to elevate through 2Q22). As such, we downgrade Haid to Neutral from OW based on rich valuation (the counter trades at a FY23E P/E of 32x vs historical 5-yr average of 26x) and earnings downgrade risk. We are turning more positive on hog names given we believe the worst is over for their financial profiles and prices are set to further rebound. Our order of preference is: Muyuan > Wens > Cofco > New Hope > Haid.