 The dollar continued weakening but with several differences—euro bloc is

no longer leading the way higher, dollar weakness is less broad-based…

 …and differentiation on the basis of relative carry, value and growth have

started to matter as well.

 The Fed and the ECB didn’t change the narrative on USD and EUR, but a

commitment to easy policy should be supportive for risk sentiment, contingent

on growth.

 Global growth momentum remains positive but with some regional

rotations. Highly positive growth momentum out of Europe has neutralized

relative to the US and China, informing our tactical recommendations.

 G10: tactically neutralized Scandi longs and are bullish CAD as a high beta

play on US growth; still short GBP on Brexit. EM FX: neutral overall but

long CNH, Latam via MXN, PEN. Neutral EMEA with focus on RV.

 The most meaningful forecasts this month are in EM FX. USD broadly

downgraded modestly by 1% in aggregate on ongoing global recovery.

 G10: EUR/USD 4Q lowered 1c to 1.19 on neutralization of positive cyclicals;

3Q21 1.16 given relative growth and central bank outlook. USD/JPY 4Q

unchanged at 104; 101 in 3Q21. GBP unchanged. EUR/GBP 0.92 and

GBP/USD 1.26 targets reflect 50:50 probability of a no-deal Brexit.

 EM: upgraded by 0.5-1.0% driven by Latam and Asia; USD/CNY 4Q20 at

6.85 (from 6.90); new 3Q21 at 6.70 on BoP and PBoC. USD/MXN 1Q21 21.50

(22.0). USD/BRL 5.35.