Key Takeaways: ESMO 2020 abstracts will start to be released on Sunday evening (September 13, 6:05pm ET). We have previewed 7 sets of data but would focus on: 1) Immunomedics’ 3L urothelial cancer, which we believe will help drive additional use beyond triple negative breast cancer; 2) TIGIT data from Arcus’ competitor (Merck) which will help de-risk YE data for Arcus’ TIGIT; and 3) the Presidential symposium for Exelixis’ cabozantinib in first line renal cancer which we believe will help drive share gains in 1L RCC.  In addition, Karyopharm’s solid tumor data which could help de-risk 2H liposarcoma data, and we are also intrigued the emergence of bivalent IO data from MacroGenics. 

IMMU (OW, $52 PT): We expect to see an OS of at least 16 months from Cohort 1 of the Phase 2 TROPHY U-01 study in 3L urothelial cancer. We believe that positive data is 80% likely, with 10-20% potential upside, and 20% potential downside to the stock. 

IMMU (OW, $52 PT): We expect to see an ORR above 30% and an OS of at least 13 months from the Phase 3 ASCENT trial in 3L TNBC. We believe that positive data is 70% likely with 5% potential upside and 10% potential downside to the stock. 

RCUS (OW, $35 PT): We expect positive Phase 1b expansion data for AB928 (adenosine inhibitor) to show a disease control rate of ~40% in NSCLC and safety to remain favorable. We believe that positive data is 75% likely, with 10% potential upside and 10% potential downside to the stock. 

RCUS (OW, $35 PT): A positive read thru for Arcus — if Merck’s 1L NSCLC combo of anti-TIGIT + PD1 approaches an ORR ~60%. We believe that positive data is 70% likely, with 10-15% potential upside and 5% potential downside to Arcus’s stock.  

EXEL (OW, $30 PT): We expect detailed results from CheckMate 9ER to demonstrate an ORR ≥ 60% and favorable safety with low rates of Grade ≥3 adverse events and a treatment discontinuation rate below 10%. We believe that positive data is 70% likely, with 5-10% potential upside and 20% potential downside to the stock. 

KPTI (OW, $31 PT): initial solid tumor data for selinexor at ESMO could act as a positive read thru for Karyopharma’s Phase 3 liposarcoma data in 2H. We believe positive data at ESMO is 60% likely, with 5-10% potential upside and 5% potential downside to the stock.  

MGNX (UW, $8 PT): We expect initial Phase 1 data for MGD019 (PD1 x CTLA-4) to demonstrate an ORR ≥ 30% and favorable safety with low rates of Grade ≥3 adverse events and no dose limiting toxicities. We believe that positive data is 60% likely, with 10% potential upside and 10% potential downside to the stock.