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亚太地区公用事业行业之泰国电力公用事业:切换到SPPs首选项-2020.9.9-105页

# 公用事业 # 泰国电力 # 投行报告 大小:3.34M | 页数:105 | 上架时间:2020-09-16 | 语言:英文

J.P. 摩根-亚太地区公用事业行业之泰国电力公用事业:切换到SPPs首选项-2020.9.9-105页.pdf

J.P. 摩根-亚太地区公用事业行业之泰国电力公用事业:切换到SPPs首选项-2020.9.9-105页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: ZF报告分享

撰写机构: J.P. 摩根

出版日期: 2020-09-09

摘要:

Thai utilities have consistently outperformed the SET index since 2010 as a result of robust defensive earnings growth, a lower interest rate environment and increasing index weighting (~9% of MSCI Thai vs. 1.5% in 2011). Key differentiators for outperformance are high multi-year capacity/earnings growth and optimal balance sheet deployment. BGRIM and GULF fit these criteria. We expect BGRIM and GPSC, as SPPs (small power plants), to benefit from declining gas intake costs from 2H20, a smaller decline in electricity tariffs and new optionality of direct LNG imports (for BGRIM). We initiate coverage of BGRIM at OW on the back of a ~25% core EPS CAGR in FY20-22E, tailwinds from lower gas intake costs for its SPPs (~68% of capacity) and favorable ESG credentials. We upgrade GPSC from N to OW, also for its SPP exposure. We initiate on GULF at N, as we are wary of elevated valuations and recent capital allocation decisions, even as it leads the sector in terms of growth rates. Our new preference order is BGRIM > GPSC > RATCH (all OW) > GULF >EGCO>BPP (all N).  Capacity/earnings growth + optimal B/S deployment = multi-year share price outperformance, as evident from historical observations. GULF’s ~37% core EPS CAGR in FY20-22E is the fastest in our coverage, followed by BGRIM at ~25% and GPSC at ~16%. GULF’s secured capacity CAGR of ~22% in 2020-25E is the most visible long-term growth pipeline. GULF and BGRIM also lead the balance sheet deployment with net D/E at 1-1.2x for FY20-22E, a historically preferred leverage ratio for investors.  Declining gas intake costs benefit SPPs the most. BGRIM and GPSC are the biggest beneficiaries of lower Thai pooled gas prices into 2H20-2021, given margin expansion for their SPP-heavy portfolios. Both BGRIM and GPSC’s SPP replacement projects, commencing operations from 2022-23, allow the companies to improve efficiency and further lower fuel costs. The LNG import licenseoffers BGRIM optionality to benefit from weaker spot LNG prices when opportunities arise and is structurally positive for margins. We think GULF is a relatively small beneficiary of direct LNG imports, as its SPP exposure by capacity should fall to ~17% by 2025 and gas IPPs have full fuel-cost pass-through. GPSC and PTT are exploring the feasibility of importing LNG directly for their SPPs to benefit from lower prices. While a potential absence of direct LNG imports may hurt GPSC’s margin competitiveness, we see limited impact on its market share, given its nearmonopoly positioning among downstream industrial users and PTT’ssupport.  BGRIM ranks most favorably in ESG benchmarking. Thai companies show distinct ESG disclosure leadership among EM countries, with utilities ranking above the index average in terms of Bloomberg disclosure scores. Within our coverage, only BGRIM and GULF fit into “Negative Screening” ESG strategy due to the absence of coal-fired capacity. BGRIM may also rank favorably in “ESG integration” strategy given ~30% renewable capacity mix (highest in the sector) and outstanding green debenture. 

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