Thai utilities have consistently outperformed the SET index since 2010 as a result of robust defensive earnings growth, a lower interest rate environment and increasing index weighting (~9% of MSCI Thai vs. 1.5% in 2011). Key differentiators for outperformance are high multi-year capacity/earnings growth and optimal balance sheet deployment. BGRIM and GULF fit these criteria. We expect BGRIM and GPSC, as SPPs (small power plants), to benefit from declining gas intake costs from 2H20, a smaller decline in electricity tariffs and new optionality of direct LNG imports (for BGRIM). We initiate coverage of BGRIM at OW on the back of a ~25% core EPS CAGR in FY20-22E, tailwinds from lower gas intake costs for its SPPs (~68% of capacity) and favorable ESG credentials. We upgrade GPSC from N to OW, also for its SPP exposure. We initiate on GULF at N, as we are wary of elevated valuations and recent capital allocation decisions, even as it leads the sector in terms of growth rates. Our new preference order is BGRIM > GPSC > RATCH (all OW) > GULF >EGCO>BPP (all N). Capacity/earnings growth + optimal B/S deployment = multi-year share price outperformance, as evident from historical observations. GULF’s ~37% core EPS CAGR in FY20-22E is the fastest in our coverage, followed by BGRIM at ~25% and GPSC at ~16%. GULF’s secured capacity CAGR of ~22% in 2020-25E is the most visible long-term growth pipeline. GULF and BGRIM also lead the balance sheet deployment with net D/E at 1-1.2x for FY20-22E, a historically preferred leverage ratio for investors. Declining gas intake costs benefit SPPs the most. BGRIM and GPSC are the biggest beneficiaries of lower Thai pooled gas prices into 2H20-2021, given margin expansion for their SPP-heavy portfolios. Both BGRIM and GPSC’s SPP replacement projects, commencing operations from 2022-23, allow the companies to improve efficiency and further lower fuel costs. The LNG import licenseoffers BGRIM optionality to benefit from weaker spot LNG prices when opportunities arise and is structurally positive for margins. We think GULF is a relatively small beneficiary of direct LNG imports, as its SPP exposure by capacity should fall to ~17% by 2025 and gas IPPs have full fuel-cost pass-through. GPSC and PTT are exploring the feasibility of importing LNG directly for their SPPs to benefit from lower prices. While a potential absence of direct LNG imports may hurt GPSC’s margin competitiveness, we see limited impact on its market share, given its nearmonopoly positioning among downstream industrial users and PTT’ssupport. BGRIM ranks most favorably in ESG benchmarking. Thai companies show distinct ESG disclosure leadership among EM countries, with utilities ranking above the index average in terms of Bloomberg disclosure scores. Within our coverage, only BGRIM and GULF fit into “Negative Screening” ESG strategy due to the absence of coal-fired capacity. BGRIM may also rank favorably in “ESG integration” strategy given ~30% renewable capacity mix (highest in the sector) and outstanding green debenture.
相关报告
国际投行报告-全球芯片行业:芯片的冲突-台积电、三星和英特尔(英)
4291
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-06
标签:投行报告、芯片、冲突)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-中国房地产和物业管理行业2022年展望-2021.11.9-75页
3686
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、房地产、物业)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
汇丰-中国汽车芯片
3461
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-07
标签:汽车、芯片、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-全球投资策略之未来城市:城市化形态的变化-2021.4-54页
2551
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-05
标签:投行报告、未来城市、城市化)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-2021年全球财富报告(英)
2469
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-06
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-2022全球投资展望:股票、地区和宏观-2021.11.17-194页
1833
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、2022投资展望、宏观经济)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球半导体行业:中国集成电路产业的不均衡崛起-2021.1.20-184页
1645
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-01
标签:半导体、中国集成电路、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球财富报告2020-2020.10-56页
1641
类型:专题
上传时间:2020-10
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-中国能源行业-中国氢能源:如何更好地发挥中国氢主题-2021.3.15-118页
1459
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-03
标签:能源、氢能源、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
中国投资策略之2021年中国的十大问题-2021.1.8-36页
1391
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-01
标签:中国投资、2021、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元
请登录,再发表你的看法
登录/注册