U.S. policymakers are counting on India. In their official judgments, India has tantalizing potential as a counterbalance to China, even if its unreformed economy and frustrating bureaucratic foibles could make realizing that potential difficult. The country is secular and multiethnic, and its democracy has weathered challenges that have felled many lesser postcolonial states. Therefore, although India’s capacity remains questionable, policymakers in Washington continue to believe that it shares a set of values and a vision for the region that make it a natural partner.

This NBR Special Report is designed to show that U.S. policymakers cannot assume the fixity of Indian strategic preferences. It presents a paper originally written under contract for the U.S. government in February 2019 and sketches three alternative futures of India as a strategic actor in the next two decades. These futures were conceived to be provocative, unlikely scenarios. But in just the eighteen months since the paper was drafted, events in India have prefigured all three scenarios, suggesting they are eminently plausible.

First, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, emboldened by its decisive re-election in May 2019, has accelerated its Hindu-nationalist agenda. Most significantly, this included the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s special autonomous status in August 2019 and the concerted messaging from government and military leaders that India still claims the Pakistan-controlled portion of Kashmir. That messaging remains for now a diplomatic and narrative device, although it resonates alarmingly with this report’s first scenario focused on a revisionist India.