"What does AI mean for your business? Read this book to find out." -- Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google

Artificial intelligence does the seemingly impossible, magically bringing machines to life--driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI will bring can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design policies, and people plan their lives for a world so different from what we know? In the face of such uncertainty, many analysts either cower in fear or predict an impossibly sunny future.

But in Prediction Machines, three eminent economists recast the rise of AI as a drop in the cost of prediction. With this single, masterful stroke, they lift the curtain on the AI-is-magic hype and show how basic tools from economics provide clarity about the AI revolution and a basis for action by CEOs, managers, policy makers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

When AI is framed as cheap prediction, its extraordinary potential becomes clear:

• Prediction is at the heart of making decisions under uncertainty. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with such decisions.
• Prediction tools increase productivity--operating machines, handling documents, communicating with customers.
• Uncertainty constrains strategy. Better prediction creates opportunities for new business structures and strategies to compete.

Penetrating, fun, and always insightful and practical, Prediction Machines follows its inescapable logic to explain how to navigate the changes on the horizon. The impact of AI will be profound, but the economic framework for understanding it is surprisingly simple.

"人工智能对你的企业意味着什么？读读这本书就知道了。" -- 哈尔-瓦里安，谷歌首席经济学家

人工智能做到了看似不可能的事情，神奇地将机器带入生活--驾驶汽车、交易股票和教育孩子。但是，面对人工智能将带来的巨大变化，可能会让人瘫痪。公司应该如何制定战略，政府如何设计政策，人们如何为一个与我们所知的世界如此不同的世界规划他们的生活？面对这种不确定性，许多分析家要么畏缩不前，要么预测一个不可能的阳光灿烂的未来。

但在《预测机器》中，三位杰出的经济学家将人工智能的兴起重新描述为预测成本的下降。他们用这一高超的手法，揭开了人工智能是神奇的炒作的序幕，并展示了经济学的基本工具如何为人工智能革命提供清晰的认识，并为首席执行官、经理、政策制定者、投资者和企业家的行动提供依据。

当人工智能被设定为廉价的预测时，其非凡的潜力就会变得清晰。

预测是在不确定情况下做出决定的核心。我们的企业和个人生活充斥着这样的决定。

预测工具可以提高生产力--操作机器、处理文件、与客户沟通。

不确定性限制了战略。更好的预测为新的商业结构和战略创造了竞争的机会。

预测机器》具有穿透性、趣味性，并且始终具有洞察力和实用性，它遵循其不可避免的逻辑来解释如何驾驭地平线上的变化。人工智能的影响将是深远的，但理解它的经济框架却出奇地简单。