Decarbonisation: We view decarbonisation as a critical theme that investors should focus on, given: 1) almost universal acceptance that climate change is happening faster than predicted; 2) considerable potential fund flows; $57trn of AUM has committed to be zero carbon by 2050, up 3.6x from December 2020 levels. ESG, and particularly ‘E’, is the fight-back mechanism for active against passive investing; 3) green issues are receiving increasing attention, forcing governments to change their policies; 137 countries have committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (or earlier) – with six enshrining their targets into law, including the EU; 4) the courts are backing up this process (e.g. in Germany, where emissions have to be cut 65% by 2030); 5) governments are realising that green-related investments can have a high multiplier of up to 4x (save the planet, reduce government debt post multiplier and create jobs) and we think green-related investment eventually will be excluded from conventional budget arithmetic (with signs of this already in UK); 6) huge health benefits from reducing pollution (all of the world’s 100 largest cities have pollution levels well above levels considered unhealthy); 7) consumers demanding more green products and corporates in return having to respond to this; 8) the cost of going to zero carbon being a fraction of the cost of not going to zero carbon on all major estimates.
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