• Poverty headcount is likely to return to the levels not seen since 2005, effectively erasing the benefits of the pre-COVID-19 unprecedented economic growth; • Similarly, poverty depth will revert to levels not seen since 2005. Put simply, a significant amount of money (4.5% of pre-COVID-19 GDP) would be needed to bring the new poor above the poverty line. This additional spending is sizeable, given that pre-COVID-19 spending on social transfers was less than one percent of GDP; • In addition to child poverty, urban poverty is likely to increase three-fold, also impacting the overall security of urban areas; • The poorest states and regions prior to COVID-19 and the military takeover are likely to still remain poor, with poverty exacerbated in these areas; • The poverty gap (measure of depth of poverty) is likely to remain high in the poorest states, though it is likely to increase by a higher margin in states and regions such as Mandalay and Yangon.

• The highest number of poor people will be living in Ayeyarwady, followed by Yangon and Sagaing.

• When considering the state/region breakdown, the highest amount of resources needed to bring the poor over the poverty line will be needed in Yangon, influenced partly by conflict-related concentrated violence.