Global growth is projected at close to 6% for 2021 and 4.5% for 2022. However, the economic outlook shows growing divergences between countries, reflecting significant asymmetries in access to vaccines —which significantly hinders a rapid normalization of economic activity— and asymmetries in countries’ capacity to maintain expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. As long as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to circulate globally, recovery remains uncertain, even in countries with high vaccination rates.

In 2021, the group of developed economies is expected to grow by 5.5%, with the United States growing by almost 7%. The eurozone should grow by 4.7%, Japan by almost 3% and the United Kingdom by about 7%. In the group of emerging economies, which are expected to grow by 6.2% this year, China and India should be in the forefront with growth of 8.4% and 9.2%, respectively. However, some developing subregions such as the Middle East and North Africa (4% growth) and sub-Saharan Africa (3.4%) are expected to be less buoyant.