The output gap—the percentage difference between actual and potential GDP—is widely used to forecast inflation and inform economic policy about the state of the economy. However, the ascendance of financial stability concerns, along with the unobservability of and sizeable revisions to potential GDP, have reduced the reliability of the output gap as a measure of economic slack.1 In addition, the various methods to estimate potential GDP can produce very different results. For example, between 2012 and 2017, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reported a negative output gap, while the method by Laubach and Williams (2003) consistently reported a positive output gap.