Ebrahim Raisi had no serious rival in Iran’s June 2021 presidential election, but his tenure in office will not be so easy. With Raisi’s inauguration on 5 August, Iran’s hardliners have consolidated their control of every centre of authority, elected and unelected, in the Islamic Republic. But they face myriad crises, ranging from economic stagnation and social unrest to the raging COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is ageing and his successor as yet unchosen. Looming over it all are the negotiations over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The hardliners should have the institutional support they need to restore the agreement, from which the U.S. withdrew in 2018. But they could be tempted to overreach, thus precipitating the deal’s collapse. If the JCPOA falls apart, the new Iranian administration – like the U.S. – should eschew escalation so that the two sides can instead negotiate a better-for-better successor accord.

Though every Iranian presidential election is closed to all but a handpicked few, the 2021 race was exceptionally uncompetitive, with a degree of voter alienation to match. Less than half of Iran’s electorate cast their votes – an unprecedented low – and those who did submitted more spoiled ballots than endorsements of any candidate save the winner. For the country’s leadership, it was seemingly imperative to preordain the outcome, even at the cost of undermining whatever faith Iranians have in the Islamic Republic’s already limited participatory processes. The supreme leader’s office and the military-cum-security apparatus clearly want a likeminded president in place for the next four years, as they expect pressing questions regarding Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession and the ruling system’s long-term viability to come to the fore.

After the JCPOA talks, Raisi’s major challenge will be Iran’s economy, embattled by U.S. sanctions as well as corruption, mismanagement and, lately, the coronavirus.

The economy may survive even when trade is curtailed, which sanctions have certainly done, but it cannot thrive. Even substantial sanctions relief pursuant to progress in the JCPOA talks will not rehabilitate the economy as long as the government fails to institute long-overdue reforms. Yet Raisi, a product of Iran’s judicial system, comes into the job with little executive experience, and his vision for domestic and external affairs is vague. If the hardliners have plans to address the deep-seated economic maladies, their tightened grip on power should make it easier to carry them out. If they do not, trouble lies ahead. Relying on coercion and catering exclusively to the 30 per cent of Iranians who voted for Raisi – the system’s core constituency – rather than considering the needs of the 70 per cent who did not could lead to growing domestic turmoil.