It seems likely that later this year or early next the economy will return to the level of overall activity recorded at the end of 2019. But even if activity in aggregate returns to pre-crisis levels, with services and construction in the lead, neither manufacturing nor agriculture seem likely to do so. We also then expect to see considerable regional variation in the short and medium-run, with the economic prospects of London showing most resilience and the Midlands and Northern Ireland looking particularly vulnerable. More importantly the economy has lost some two years of economicgrowth and sectors, such as hospitality and the arts, which are so important to UK plc may bear the scars for some time to come. And although there are encouraging signs in the rate of Covid infections, it is far too early to get out the bunting. Once again, a crisis has exposed existing vulnerabilities and we need to focus on our policy responses