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欧洲央行-欧元区NGFS气候情景:财政和货币政策行为的作用(英)-2023

# 欧元区 # 财政 # 货币政策 大小:0.95M | 页数:35 | 上架时间:2023-12-21 | 语言:英文

欧洲央行-欧元区NGFS气候情景:财政和货币政策行为的作用(英)-2023.pdf

欧洲央行-欧元区NGFS气候情景:财政和货币政策行为的作用(英)-2023.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: FYJ

撰写机构: 欧洲央行

出版日期: 2023-12-21

摘要:

In this paper we analyse the sensitivity of the macroeconomic outcomes under the Network for Greening the Financial System’s (NGFS’s) Phase III net-zero and delayed transition scenarios to different monetary and fiscal policy settings. In doing  so, we provide a rare application of the NGFS climate scenarios to economic  assessment through the lens of the macroeconomic modelling frameworks  underlying the scenario construction (e.g. NiGEM). Using the model to disentangle  the main drivers of the scenarios, we show that gross domestic product (GDP)  growth is shaped by physical and transition shocks jointly, whereas transition shocks  account for most of the inflationary pressure. As regards alternative policy settings  within the model, it turns out that Fiscal recycling options become more discriminant  in terms of GDP impact in the medium term. Full recycling through government  investment yields the strongest output multiplier, whereas recycling through  household transfers or reduced income taxes yields the lowest multiplier. During the  transition, euro area macroeconomic variables respond very similarly if two-pillar or  price level-targeting monetary policy rules are followed. The Taylor- rule, reacting to  inflation and output gap, yields higher and more persistent inflation as well as  stronger short-term interest rate increases. These findings are certainly model￾specific but do reflect the policy sensitivity embedded of the NGFS scenarios, within  the confines of the very model used to build them up. 

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