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亚开行-亚洲发展展望(ADO)2023年12月:经济增长加快,价格压力缓解(英)-2023.12

# 亚洲 # 经济 # 价格 大小:1.70M | 页数:13 | 上架时间:2023-12-20 | 语言:英文

亚开行-亚洲发展展望(ADO)2023年12月:经济增长加快,价格压力缓解(英)-2023.12.pdf

亚开行-亚洲发展展望(ADO)2023年12月:经济增长加快,价格压力缓解(英)-2023.12.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: FYJ

撰写机构: 亚开行

出版日期: 2023-12-20

摘要:

Developing Asia’s outlook remains solid  despite global challenges. The 2023  growth forecast is revised up from Asian  Development Outlook September 2023’s  projection, to 4.9% from 4.7%, on robust  domestic demand. The 2024 forecast is  maintained at 4.8%.

„ East Asia’s growth forecast for 2023  is revised up to 4.7% on higher-than￾expected third quarter growth in the  People’s Republic of China. The forecast  for 2024 is maintained at 4.2%.

„ South Asia’s projection is revised up  to 5.7% for 2023, driven by stronger￾than-expected growth in India, and is  unchanged at 6.0% for 2024. 

„ Growth forecasts for Southeast Asia are  revised down to 4.3% for 2023 and 4.7%  for 2024, mainly on weak external demand.

„ The Caucasus and Central Asia’s 2023  outlook has improved, with growth now  forecast at 4.8% primarily on expectations  of faster growth in Kazakhstan. The 2024  forecast is revised down slightly to 4.6%.

„ The Pacific’s growth projections are  unchanged at 3.5% for 2023 and 2.9%  for 2024, on the continued recovery of  international tourism and the resumption  of public infrastructure projects.

„ Developing Asia’s inflation is forecast  to decline from 4.4% last year to a  downward-adjusted 3.5% this year, before  rising slightly to 3.6% in 2024.

„ Downside risks are mainly associated with  higher-for-longer interest rates in advanced  economies, which could trigger financial  instability. Possible supply disruptions from  El Niño and the Russian invasion of Ukraine  could renew energy and food security  challenges, and rekindle inflation. 

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