Interest rate swaps and manipulated risk ratings / loss provisions have obscured serious deterioration in BXMT's loan book. We believe that starting in 2024, as an estimated $16 billion of swaps terminate, the following problems will be evident: • BXMT will likely significantly cut its dividend as soon as H2 2024. At present SOFR, we expect BXMT to cut its quarterly dividend by at least half.We think large numbers of borrowers will be unable to refinance and repay BXMT. BXMT is at risk of a liquidity crisis.Even assuming rate cuts, BXMT's losses on its $23.2 billion net book value of loans could reach ~$2.5 billion to ~$4.5 billion. BXMT's market cap, which is currently $4.0 billion, is at risk of being completely wiped out by these losses. These losses would be in addition to BXMT's existing loss provisions.