Battery cell manufacturing production follows constrained cobalt supply, rather than demand for the cells themselves.Along the supply chain, domestic-to-domestic demand is supplied first (e.g. raw Li mined in US will supply US Li refiners). Following this, the excess supply (exports) proportionally follows the greatest (import) demand. The biggest of these supply chain assumptions is that raw and refined cobalt mainly gets bought up by Chinese battery cell manufacturers. This follows the logic that the bigger a countries demand the greater the purchasing power they will have, especially as markets become constrained.Final demand is the battery cells, supplied by battery cell manufacturers. Where the battery cells are incorporated into the product (EV, consumer electronics) is not considered.There are no export controls at any time.As supply chain tightens, battery cell prices will inflate. The analysis doesn’t factor in the potential of prices dampening demand. In regions composed of multiple countries (such as Europe), there is no coordinated action to supply materials to countries within that region. Supply proportionally follows the greatest demand.Bilateral trade agreements and foreign ownership of production assets is not considered (eg Chinese companies owning cobalt mines in the DRC). Mine and refiners in the future are those identified by BNEF within their datasets, as of Q1 2023, calibrated against USGS data. Non-battery demand for cobalt, lithium and nickel is flat into the future.No consideration of stocks/stored cobalt, lithium and nickel, raw or refined.