LNG markets remain fragile amidst growing geopolitical risk. Geopolitics has become the most significant driver of remapping LNG trade flows and investment. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine structurally transformed natural gas markets. While gas balances have stabilized and growth has moderated this year, many new and emerging risks exist. Producer and consumer dialogue is essential to addressing market risks and ensuring affordable and accessible energy for all through the energy transition. Global LNG trade soared to a record high in 2022 and will increase by a further 25% by 2028, reaching 500 mtpa. High prices and supply issues have increased the risk of LNG developments, but robust expansions are expected, especially in emerging regions like Africa and Southeast Asia. Ten new importers are expected to join the market in the next two years alone. Growth will be driven by adopting LNG for clean cooking and power generation (including coal-to-gas switching). The Southeast Asia LNG market is poised to double by the end of the decade, driven by countries like Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines. However, the growth prospects rely on fuel affordability and international financial assistance. China emerges as the world’s largest LNG importer in 2023, ahead of Japan for the first time. China’s gas demand contracted for the first time in four decades in 2022, but it rebounded in 2023, positioning the country to become the world’s largest LNG importer. China redirected LNG imports to Europe last year for a profit as domestic demand waned. China’s share of active global LNG contracts is expected to rise to nearly 25% by 2030, bolstering the role of Chinese companies in LNG trading. However, its willingness to be a swing player in the future will depend on domestic energy priorities and energy security concerns.