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IMF-物理气候风险对全球经济的影响(英)-2023.9

# 气候风险 # 经济 # 生产力 大小:8.17M | 页数:125 | 上架时间:2023-09-15 | 语言:英文

IMF-物理气候风险对全球经济的影响(英)-2023.9.pdf

IMF-物理气候风险对全球经济的影响(英)-2023.9.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: FYJ

撰写机构: IMF

出版日期: 2023-09-15

摘要:

This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis.

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