Platinum deficit forecast for 2023 now over 1 million ounces on strong automotive and industrial demand growth and flat supply • Total demand expected to increase 27% in 2023, while total supply will be flat • Automotive recovery will see 2023 demand up 13% (+381 koz), driven by greaterthan-expected vehicle production, increased substitution and higher loadings • Capacity expansions drive forecast industrial demand in 2023 to a record 2,667 koz • Strong ETF demand in Q2’23, with 2023 forecast total investment of 386 koz The World Platinum Investment Council – WPIC® - today publishes its Platinum Quarterly for the second quarter of 2023 with an updated full-year forecast.
For the third consecutive quarter, global platinum demand rose, growing 31% (+519 koz) yearon-year in Q2’23. Strong year-on-year demand growth momentum in automotive (+19%, +136 koz) and industrial demand (+12%, +76 koz) added to continued positive investment demand.
Meanwhile, refined platinum production fell 4% year-on-year (-65 koz) as did autocatalyst recycling (-13%, -37 koz) and jewellery recycling (-9%, -9 koz). This led to a market deficit of 348 koz for Q2’23, marking platinum’s first two consecutive quarters of deficit since the second half of 2020.
These events, which continue trends seen in the first quarter of this year, have led to another upward revision of the deficit forecast for the full-year 2023 to 1,005 koz, the largest deficit on record in terms of both absolute ounces and as a percentage of annual demand. Total supply is expected to remain flat, aligned with the weak 2022 level of 7,224 koz (-31 koz), while demand is expected to increase significantly by 27% to 8,230 koz (+1,738 koz).
Strong quarterly increase in vehicle production adds to existing drivers for platinum automotive demand growth Platinum automotive demand rose 19% year-on-year (+136 koz) to 840 koz in Q2’23, as the semiconductor shortage continued to ease, leading to a healthy uplift in vehicle production.
Global light-duty vehicle (LDV) production increased 14% year-on-year, while heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) production grew by 18%.
For full-year 2023, automotive platinum demand is being driven higher by increased vehicle production, with LDV and HDV production forecast to grow by 6% and 7% respectively, ongoing substitution of platinum for palladium, and higher platinum group metal (PGM) loadings. Tighter Chinese emissions standards for HDV (effective from 1 July 2023) will see a rise in demand for platinum as PGM-coated particulate filter systems are phased in. These factors will lift 2023 global platinum automotive demand by 13% (+381 koz) to 3,283 koz.
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