美联储-时代的终结：企业利润增长和股票回报的长期放缓（英）-2023.6

# 股票回报 # 股权溢价 # 利率大小：0.63M | 页数：31 | 上架时间：2023-06-28 | 语言：英文

美联储-时代的终结：企业利润增长和股票回报的长期放缓（英）-2023.6.pdf

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美联储-时代的终结：企业利润增长和股票回报的长期放缓（英）-2023.6.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 范泽林

撰写机构: 美联储

出版日期: 2023-06-28

摘要：

I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from everdeclining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future.

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