This book is about luck - or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in business and life. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling and explaining three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern world.The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. In addition we meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his trading life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.But the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed - the lucky fool in the right place at the right time. The embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit. Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. A monkey banging on a keyboard may eventually produce the Iliad, but would you sign him to write the sequel? Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover non-existent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

这本书是关于运气的——或者更确切地说，是关于我们在商业和生活中如何看待和处理运气的。在这个最引人注目的论坛上，运气被误认为是技能——交易的世界——被随机性愚弄的背景下，我们对生活中最不了解的因素之一有了一个引人入胜的见解。作者以一种娱乐性和叙事性的写作风格，成功地解决和解释了三个主要的智力问题：归纳问题、生存偏见和我们对现代世界的遗传不适应。这本书充满了一系列的人物，其中一些人以自己的方式掌握了，机会的意义：棒球传奇尤吉·贝拉；卡尔·波普尔，知识哲学家；梭伦，古代世界最聪明的人；现代金融家乔治·索罗斯；希腊航海家尤利西斯。此外，我们还遇到了虚构的尼禄，他似乎明白随机性在他的交易生活中的作用，但他也成为自己迷信愚蠢行为的牺牲品，但最知名的人物仍然是无名的——在正确的时间在正确的地点的幸运傻瓜。“最不合适的生存”的体现。这样的个体吸引了那些相信上师见解和方法的忠实追随者。但是没有人能够复制通过偶然获得的东西。一只猴子敲打键盘最终可能会产生《伊利亚特》，但你会让他写续集吗？我们有能力区分幸运的江湖骗子和真正的幻想家吗？我们必须总是试图在随机事件中发现不存在的信息吗？也许我们不可能防范佛图纳女神的变幻莫测，但在阅读了被随机性愚弄的书籍之后，我们可以有一点更好的准备。