The June edition of the Chief Economists Outlook comes out amid improving aggregate recovery momentum, yet in a profoundly uncertain environment with widely diverging trajectories. Across countries, differentiated paths are opening up, determined to a large extent by access to vaccines and the financial resources available to governments. Soaring stock markets and rising commodity prices give the impression that the fortunes of the global economy are looking up. And yet, behind these numbers, some countries are experiencing dramatic new waves of the virus; people are still processing 18 months of ill health, grief and stress; millions of workers have dropped out of the global labour force; and job openings are going unfilled across advanced economies.

The second US stimulus package along with an acceleration in the roll-out of vaccines in high-income economies gave a boost to global growth forecasts this spring.

The consensus among the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists Community is tending towards an expected average global growth rate in the range of 5.5% to 6% in 2021 (or possibly higher) and a recovery of global GDP to pre-COVID levels within the first half of 2022.