Do you think that Mitt Romney’s “47%” comment caused him to lose the 2012 presidential election? Or that Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election because he sweated on TV? Maybe John Kerry was “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? Think again! In Predicting the Next President, political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

你认为罗姆尼的“47%”言论导致他在2012年总统选举中输了吗？或者理查德·尼克松因为电视上的血汗而在1960年的总统选举中输了？也许约翰·克里在2004年被“迅速”地从总统职位中脱颖而出？再想想！在预测下一任总统时，政治分析家和历史学家艾伦J。利希特曼提出了决定总统选举结果的十三个历史因素，即“关键”（四个政治因素、七项表现和两个个性因素）。从1860年以来，利希曼成功地将这些关键应用到每一次选举中，消除了选举政治背后的许多神秘，并挑战了许多传统假设。政治瘾君子不可或缺的资源！