China’s ten driest provinces produce 70% and 53% of the country’s wheat and hogs,respectively. Food security via self-reliance is a recurring topic in recent policypronouncements, emphasizing agriculture strategies to manage limited water, soiland land resources. Against this backdrop, leading market participants need to behighly efficient to survive and grow in the fragmented hog and feed industry, wherewe expect consolidation to continue. With African Swine Fever (ASF) being thenew normal, we forecast 2025 hog supply of 675mn hog heads, below 2018 levelsof 694mn heads. Size and cost efficiency are important criteria for stock selection, inour view, complementing volume growth prospects and margins. We see Muyuan(initiate at OW) emerging as a mega-scale hog producer; it is our top pick alongwith Haid (top feed producer; initiate at OW). We also initiate on COFCO at OWfor its underappreciated business improvement. We initiate coverage of Wens atNeutral (de-rating largely done) and New Hope at UW (business uncertainty).