The health of our economies continues to depend on infection rates, the pressures experienced by health care systems, and the duration and severity of containment measures. The new round of restrictions prompted by the wave of infections that took off in late 2020 pushed the EU back into recession, even though the decline in activity was far milder than the downturn during the first wave.  

But vaccines - developed, approved and administered in record time - are turning the page on the pandemic. In recent weeks, the pace of vaccination has accelerated as supply constraints have eased. By 10 May, more than 120 million EU citizens, mainly older people and other priority groups, had rolled up their sleeves to get a jab. The vaccination of younger people is also quickly progressing. This offers the prospect for a return to the freedom we knew before the pandemic and a brightening of the economic outlook. The economy is also benefitting from an improved external environment, and continued strong policy support.  

As the rebound gains momentum, the focus of economic policy has to shift from protecting companies and jobs to paving the way for a smooth, sustained, and sustainable, recovery. The Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) offers a unique opportunity in this respect that cannot be missed. Together with the support from the external environment, the incorporation in this forecast of the national Recovery and Resilience Plans for all Member States – under simplified technical assumptions in cases where the details of the Plans are not sufficiently known yet - explains much of the upward revision to the growth outlook since the winter. It is also the reason why the EU is now expected to return to its pre-pandemic level of GDP by the end of this year, which is earlier than previously expected. This is good news. But to make this happen, implementation is essential. 

It is also important to bear in mind that unless the virus is controlled everywhere across the globe, it cannot be under control anywhere. Some large developing and emerging economies that are now experiencing a resurgence of the pandemic cannot rely on the rapid availability of vaccines, and their health systems are ill-equipped to cope with a pandemic. This is a tragedy for the millions of people who remain at risk of illness and death. It also represents a global threat, with the risk of new virus mutations making a comeback and paralysing our economies again. This requires decisive and concerted efforts on a global scale in order to secure swift worldwide access to affordable COVID-19 vaccines, diagnostics and treatments.