In the year since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states. The pandemic has negatively affected global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus reduced global economic growth to an annualized rate of -4.5% to -6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery of 2.5% to 5.2% projected for 2021. Global trade is estimated to have fallen by 5.3% in 2020, but is projected to grow by 8.0% in 2021. According to a consensus of forecasts, the economic downturn in 2020 was not as negative as initially estimated, due, at least in part, to the fiscal and monetary policies governments adopted in 2020. Major advanced economies, which comprise 60% of global economic activity, are projected to operate below their potential output level through at least 2024. Compared with the synchronized nature of the global economic slowdown in the first half of 2020, the global economy has shown signs of a two-track recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 with developed economies experiencing a nascent recovery and economic growth in developing economies lagging behind. A resurgence in infectious cases in Europe, the United States, Japan, Brazil, India, and various developing economies renewed calls for lockdowns and curfews and threatened to weaken or delay a potential sustained economic recovery into mid to late 2021
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