We expect consensus estimates will drift lower before 1Q21 results start next week, but we aren’t expecting many surprises this quarter with weather-related headwinds the most likely culprit for any headline miss. Over the last year we have often heard that earnings won’t matter and always took the other side, but this quarter our view for limited fireworks ahead of the summer appears to be out of consensus view. Strong activity in January and March should offset tough conditions in February to keep 2021 outlooks intact and we do not expect CSX or UPS will initiate a full year forecast after refraining last quarter. Expectations also appear to have moderated since we took a cautious stance on the group into 4Q20 earnings ahead of rising labor costs and yield pressure in 1Q. While we weren’t the only ones to have our truckload UWs get run over as spot rate momentum jumped, this result is consistent with our framework even if we weren’t nimble enough to use it, so at this point we will wait for the momentum to fade in late May. Interestingly, during our update of truckload regulations for the first time since last fall, we found the Drug & Alcohol Clearinghouse lacks a key enforcement component – state driver licensing agencies are not required to check the database for violations prior to issuing, renewing, upgrading or transferring a CDL until January 2023. On single stock ideas, we only have one long and one avoid into earnings compared to our view of sentiment and positioning. We like UNP for core operating gains with a tailwind from export grain and positive commentary on the May 4 investor day. CHRW is one we’d avoid as 2022 estimates are too high if Global Forwarding normalizes while historically the stock outperforms when spot/contract spreads are widening, not tightening which is what is happened in 1Q21. We are not changing any ratings, but we did add FDX to the U.S. Analyst Focus List based on its multi-year growth potential at an attractive valuation, supported by industry pricing power and the TNT integration. NSC remains Overweight but comes off the AFL as the operating transformation is more consensus now than when we upgraded in December 2018. We still like KSU ahead of the voting trust approval although the stock has climbed +6% even after the first day jump on the CP bid as the regulatory risk became more palatable, especially on the voting trust approval. Please contact the team or your salesperson for dial-in details for a call on April 9 at 10am ET to discuss railroad M&A with three highly experienced shipper and rail lawyers.