We halve our mining overweight because the dollar threatens a short-term rebound, China PMI is slowing and Chinese monetary policy is being tightened. This leads to underperformance 83% of the time (especially with Chinese copper imports up 34% last year). This sector may ‘pause’ but we avoid taking our weightings down further because the medium-term cyclical and structural support is solid: this time around, mining is driven by the rebound in non-China IP which should cause global IP to accelerate to 10%; valuations still look neutral-to-attractive on all measures (especially FCF, which is 18.2% on maintenance capex/spot prices); mining remains an inflation hedge and we think green-related demand has been underestimated.