The last 10+ year cycle has been led by a normalization of residential HVAC demand, with above average growth here off of a materially depressed base, while the commercial business lagged alongside, fundamentally challenged by secular trends around building owner productivity, though we see the potential for a "pivot" in the next 10 years. Given the absence of a material drawdown in residential despite the indicators, we believe demand is now above normalized, close to peak, and will remain volatile. There is less visibility into commercial except on a high level, with systems now aged from the late 90s real estate boom coming due for evaluation in an environment where IAQ, and, more tangible, ESG, are both catalysts for a pull forward of timing around penetration of the integrated building systems model. We also see less risk of disruption of competitive behavior in a commercial market that is more direct and where there is more technology differentiation. We think JCI is best placed to benefit from these trends, but remain Neutral as the stock has recently moved to reflect a more optimistic outlook, in our view. We also remain Neutral on CARR, but prefer it to highly valued peer TT (also N rated) as we see a disconnect in valuation that should narrow over time, while we remain UW on LII as we believe the residential story is less attractive and see limited benefits/unfavorable exposure on the commercial unitary side, not as short cycle as one would expect as per the '08/'09 experience.